Checking In on Expert Arm-Shredder Ned Yost
CC Sabathia did it again, throwing a complete game for the Brewers to run his record to 8-0 since coming over to the National League. He also threw 130 pitches, compiling that total despite Milwaukee’s comfortable lead in the game (it won 9-3).
This is ground I’ve covered here before, but I’d like to cover it again, and echo David Pinto’s sentiments over at Baseball Musings.
Major league pitchers have thrown more than 120 pitches in a game 49 times this season. Seven of those games have been pitched by Milwaukee Brewers. By my count, no other team has stretched its starting pitchers that far more than three times.
When I first complained about the way Ned Yost handled his pitching staff, a couple Brewers bloggers chided me for perhaps being a bit overprotective.
My Summer of Baseball had this to say:
How about we all just enjoy it and be glad Benny made it through OK. It’s not about what happened yesterday; it’s about what happens next.
While Right Field Bleachers had this to say:
I think an MLB pitcher has to be able to throw 123 pitches in a game. That’s really not that outlandish for a veteran almost two months into the season. And Sheets’ injuries have not been related to being overworked. They’ve been freak injuries.
I say in response that what happened today has an immediate and enormous impact on what happens tomorrow and I add that just because Ben Sheets hasn’t been injured because of being overworked doesn’t mean he isn’t susceptible to that sort of injury.
Here is what I know. Sheets IS fragile. He has already thrown more innings this year than any since 2004 and he has thrown 120, 121 and 123 pitches in three of his starts this year. I also know that Sabathia is a horse. His left arm can take plenty of innings. But he appeared to fade badly in the 2007 postseason, perhaps as the result of a heavy workload. He is on pace for a similarly heavy workload in 2008, and, if you include a turn with the Indians, he has thrown 130, 124, 123 and 122 pitches in four of his starts this year.
I appreciate the Brewers’ position. They are in full win-now mode with Sheets and Sabathia both bound for free agency this winter. But Ned Yost seems to be handling his pitchers like his job is on the line every day. It’s not, and the Brewers don’t even appear to be in all that tight of a playoff race. Baseball Prospectus gave them a 77 percent chance at a spot in the postseason as of this morning.
What I’m getting at is that Milwaukee needs to start playing for October as opposed to playing just to get there. Allowing CC Sabathia to stay on the mound needlessly in a six-run game when you are probably going to need the bullets in his arm in the NLDS and beyond runs against that philosophy. Sure, Sabathia and the Brewers look great now. Here’s hoping they don’t pay for it at some point in the playoffs.
August 19th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
“They were all in agreement that they would rather have the off-days,” Yost said. “It keeps them stronger and more refreshed [even though] over the course of the year, CC and Ben will have one less start. It works really, really well, and we set up better [for the postseason] doing it that way.”
“I like to get the extra days late in the season,” Sabathia said. “You go all year, and it’s good to get the extra days in September. I’m all for it. No doubt. You’re definitely stronger and it sets up to pitch in the playoffs.”
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August 19th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
“You give them the opportunity when the situation allows it. … It’s a certain mental pride knowing they can go out in a Major League game and finish what they start,” Yost said. “I felt like he deserved the opportunity, no matter what the score was last night, for him to accomplish it, and it was something that he wanted to accomplish.”
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Yeah, that’s a good reason. CC Sabathia needs to be confident that he can finish a game. Because he’s certainly never done that before.
August 19th, 2008 at 11:25 pm
In regards to the first Yost comment, BP’s PAP studies have shown that it’s excessive pitch counts — not the amount of rest, or lack thereof, in between starts — that leads to injuries.
That’s why you see a lot of sabermetrician’s advocating a four-man rotation on limited pitch counts.
It makes sense intuitively. When you throw at your most tired, aka after 110 pitches, that mechanics begin to fall apart. When the mechanics go, injuries can occur.