Defensive Indifference

Now that enough of the season has been played so that sample sizes are starting to be somewhat meaningful, I thought I’d write about a few minor leaguers who have come out of nowhere and potentially catapulted themselves from obscurity to the land of legitimate prospect-dom. These are all players who were either unranked by Baseball America entering the year (Hughes, Cumberland, Sandoval), or were ranked very low (Dickerson, 26), thus the title “out of left field.” So without further adieu, here are four of this season’s fastest rising prospects:

3B Luke Hughes, Minnesota Twins (8/2/84) A member of the Australian National Team who took part in the World Baseball Classic, Hughes has toiled in the Minnesota farm system since he was signed as an international free agent in 2002. Despite putting up uninspiring numbers through 2006, the Twins decided to promote Hughes to AA in ‘07, and he had his best pro season since rookie ball, hitting .283/.353/.438 for New Britain. While a good step forward for Hughes, 2007 was nothing to write home about statistically, and it was not until this spring that things finally have come together for the Aussie. To date, Hughes has put up the following numbers in AA:

165 PA, .356/.412/.651, 10 HR, 7 2B, .396 BABIP

Granted, Hughes’ BABIP is unsustainably high and he is not exactly young for his league, but this does not explain his newfound power. The 10 home runs he has hit so far is already more than he has hit in any season in his entire minor league career, and this is only a quarter of the way into the season. Hughes’ .295 ISOP is outstanding, he has hit even better on the road than at home, and his OPS is 45% above the Eastern League average. His strikeout rate (18.2%) is manageable, while his walk rate is good (9.7%). Adjusted to an average BABIP (.310), Hughes’ BA and OBP would still be a more than adequate .294 and .362, respectively.

In sum, while I doubt Hughes will keep up this level of production as his BABIP regresses to the mean, he still could prove to be one of 2008’s most surprising minor leaguers, and most likely will see some time in AAA (if not the Majors) before the season is out.

RF Shaun Cumberland, Cincinnati Reds (8/1/84) Drafted by Tampa Bay in the 10th round in 2003 and traded to the Reds last year, Cumberland has never really lived up to his potential until this season with AA Chattanooga, where he has shown improvement in nearly every facet of the game. Cumberland’s numbers so far this year:

146 PA, .309/.403/.561, 7 HR, 6 2B, .320 BABIP

Unlike Hughes, Cumberland’s BABIP has not been unusually high by a significant amount. Furthermore, Cumberland seems to have a made a very important adjustment in the way he approaches hitting, drastically improving his K and BB rates while increasing his power output.  His strikeout rate of  13% this season is very good (especially for a hitter with power), his walk rate of 14.4% is outstanding, and his ISOP of .252 is excellent as well. All of these are career bests by far. Like Hughes, Cumberland has hit well both at home and on the road, making the possibility of a fluke performance less likely. Regression is certainly probable (especially in the power and K/BB departments), but Cumberland does still seem to have improved substantially.

C/1B Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants (8/11/86)  Despite a strong showing in the high-A California League last year, Sandoval received little acclaim as a hard-hitting catcher, perhaps because of the league’s notorious tendency to inflate numbers. This year, however, Sandoval’s numbers have gotten even better in the same league, and have moved into the domain of the “unreal.” Take a look:

176 PA, .409/.469/.708, 8 HR, 18 2B, .451 BABIP

Clearly there is an issue of an absurdly high BABIP, but this does not fully account for Sandoval’s improved power output and greatly improved BB rate. His ISOP of .299 is ridiculous (especially for a catcher), and his walk rate of 10.2% is also very good—a huge improvement over his 2007 walk rate of 5.2%. Adjusted to a .310 BABIP, Sandoval’s BA and OBP regress to .298 and .370, not exactly anything to sneeze at. His home/road splits are not alarming, and he is still only 21 years old. Even in the CAL league, Sandoval’s OPS is 59% above the league average. Sandoval has played both catcher and first base, but if his bat is as good as it looks, he’ll certainly be able to find a place on the field at higher levels.

RF Joseph Dickerson, Kansas City Royals (10/3/86) Drafted in the 4th round in 2005, Dickerson had a good debut but has not been overly impressive again until this season in high-Class A Wilmington.  So far, Dickerson has accumulated the following numbers:

162 PA, .285/.375/.460, 3 HR, 7 2B, 4 3B, .319 BABIP, 17 SB (67% success rate)

More of a burner/table setter than the previous three players, Dickerson (like Cumberland) has improved seemingly every facet of his game this year. Compared to last year, his strikeout rate is lower (13% v. 16.3%), his walk rate is higher (10.5% v. 8.2%), and his power output has improved by leaps and bounds (.175 ISOP v. .086). As his 17 SB show, Dickerson is speedy; the challenge is for him to harness his speed and improve his success rate—67% is not exactly impressive. Nonetheless, Dickerson now profiles as a solid hitting prospect if he can keep his production up. He may never have the power to be a corner outfielder; perhaps a move to center field is in order.