So, Who Ya Got?
Published by Andrew Johnson May 19th, 2008 in D-BacksAt the end of last week, the folks over at FanHouse did a roundtable discussion based off of Dubya’s proclamation that he would pick Roy Halladay and Chase Utley if he could choose one pitcher and one hitter to build his team around.
Halladay and Utley are perfectly reasonable and intelligent answers, but the great thing about questions like this — and these are really the types of questions that make being a sports fan great — is that there’s ample room for debate.
I chose Brandon Webb and Justin Upton. Webb because he seems like the type of pitcher who will age well. He’s not overpowering, but he has an excellent skillset — terrific command, a high strikeout rate and a sinker that generates lots of groundballs. Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett and a few others might be more dominant at their best but Webb chews up a ton of innings and doesn’t seem to get the odd health dings that other pitchers do. Lastly, he seems willing to make adjustments. He’s added pitches to his repertoire and improved his control since coming into the league.
Upton is a much simpler choice. He’s 20 and he has a .936 OPS this season. Players like him, who break into the majors this young and hit this well, come along once or twice in a generation. Griffey, A-Rod, Willie Mays — those are the names that come to mind.
There was no real criteria for selecting who you want, but we generally agreed that you should pick players who would help you win now and in the future. Webb is more of a now pick, while Upton is more of a future pick, a guy with better seasons ahead.
So, who would you take?
Aaron Cook and Nick Punto, no doubt.
In all seriousness, I would probably take a few young players like Tim Lincecum and David Wright. Lincecum’s stuff is simply filthy and he’s only 23; my only concern is his somewhat high walk rate and really high strikeout rate often leads to his pitch counts reaching 100 by the fifth innings, which limits his potential value. I think his walk rate will improve as he matures however, which would solve this problem.
As for Wright, he pretty much does everything well. He hits for average and power, runs the bases well, and is a good defender as well. He also has excellent plate discipline, and is only 25 years old.
I also would take David Wright. I can see the sense in taking J. Upton or Longoria instead of guys like Utley and Pujols, who are already in their primes. For pitchers, it makes much less sense to make a future type pick, because of the injury risk/general uncertainty regarding even elite pitching prospects. I would go for more of a now pick and take Webb. I really wanted to say Lincecum or Joba here, but I can’t.
Bobby, that was pretty much my thinking. Take a pitcher who’s dealing now and hope for the best and take a hitter who’s good now but could be even better. Wright is a great choice, and probably the best one, but I’m enamored with Upton’s skillz.
Tom Fornelli took all of us at the ‘Haus to task for not including Pujols, but he’s in the midst of his prime, and I’ve at least heard whispers about him being older than he says. You can’t discount that these days with players from the Caribbean. It’s just a fact of life.
You guys are right about the risks of taking a young pitcher. The problem is, pitchers are prone to fall off a cliff at literally any age, it’s not just 23 year olds. There are so many examples of pitchers dominating up until age 30 or so, then just imploding. I think Lincecum has as good a shot as anyone to have a long, successful career.
True to an extent, but pitchers under the age of 25 are more likely to suffer a traumatic arm injury than ones 25 and up — this is the injury nexus, which was researched by BP and discussed here when I posted about Joba vs. Clay.
Among intelligent and reasonable baseball fans, there’s no real wrong answer to this question. I love Webb because he strikes out opponents, but he also has terrific control and gets groundballs. The last part is what pushes him above the rest for me, at least at this moment.
Is this an all-time deal? If so, I’d go with Walt Weiss (positional value) and Dock Ellis (original purveyor of real PEDs).
If not, and assuming all the above are off the board, I’d go with Hanley Ramirez (very young, all 5 tools, plays SS) and Johan Santana (top 3 pitcher, still on the right side of 30, and he’s proven to be reliable so far [knock on wood]).
Santana is a good pick and I’m surprised no one picked him in the roundtable. I shied away from Hanley because I don’t believe he’ll be a shortstop much longer. Of course he’ll still be plenty valuable whatever position he’s playing.
Hanley’s defensive problems are what bother me as well. He needs to move, probably to the OF. If he turns into a good CF, like B.J. Upton, he might be the guy. But Wright and Pujols are already excellent defensively. For what it’s worth, someone asked Bill James this question at the Sloan MIT Sports Conference this year, and he picked David Wright. I forget who the other panelists picked…I think Tom Tippett from the Sox and the scout there from the D Backs took J. Upton. They were asked to pick only one player, and, for the reasons we discussed above, it would have to be a position player.
As for Santana, his HR rates, if you combine this season with the last, are pretty alarming. He’s on pace for something like 50 HR this season. No pitcher has ever had an ERA above 120 for 200 IP with his HR rate (1.65 per 9). He’s usually a second half pitcher, but still. This season and last season are starting to become a pretty meaningful sample size. He might be on the right side of 30, but I bet he’s on the wrong side of his peak.
ERA , that is.
ERA
This is annoying…ERA plus…the “plus” sign gets deleted for some reason.