The AL Central: Chock Full of Overratedness
As of tonight, the Minnesota Twins lead the American League Central with a record of 16-15. This was supposed to be the best division in baseball, but so far it looks more like its National League counterpart. Sure the Tigers and Indians will play better, but as we close in on the 1/4 mark of the season, it seems clear to me that this vaunted division isn’t nearly as good as we all thought it would be entering the season.
Here’s a team-by-team breakdown of the flaws:
Twins (16-15): Minnesota ranks sixth in the AL in ERA, but their starting pitching isn’t really this good, only the performances of Scott Baker, and to a much lesser extent Boof Bonser, seem believable. The offense is brutal and only going to get worse. Not a single player is slugging in the .500s and there are three regulars — Mike Lamb, Carlos Gomez and Adam Everett — with sub-.300 OBPs. Two of them, Everett and Gomez, seem unlikely to improve this season.
White Sox (15-16): Mr. Almost No-Hitter Gavin Floyd and Jose Contreras are both pitching well above their heads and based on their peripherals are due a serious regression to the mean. I actually think the offense will be OK once Nick Swisher gets going and I’m not worried about their struggles in Toronto, given the Blue Jays’ pitching. I actually think Chicago has a puncher’s chance, but that has more to do with the Central being weaker than expected than anything else. Given their shenanigans with a blowup doll, I suspect I’ll find it hard to pull for this bunch.
Indians (15-17): I think Cleveland will ultimately come out on top in this division because of their balance, but there are some serious flaws here. Travis Hafner has been in a slump for over a year now and, at 31, it’s looking like it’s about time to give up on him as a serious offensive force. On top of that, this team gets pretty marginal production from the corners and doesn’t look much better than average offensively. The pitching is actually pretty good, but I’m extremely worried about Fausto Carmona, who has 31 walks to 15 strikeouts this year. He can overcome a low strikeout rate with his heavy sinker, but that kind of K:BB is a recipe for disaster.
Royals (14-18): The pitching is surprisingly good, the offense is very, very bad. K.C. is last in the AL in runs scored, last in on-base percentage and last in slugging percentage and Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are the only two regulars with real upside.
Tigers (14-20): By far the most overrated team in baseball coming into the season. The Tigers aren’t this bad, but, as I suspected heading into the season, the offensive boost Miguel Cabrera has provided is being offset by the unsurprising regression of players like Placido Polanco. I think Justin Verlander will be fine, but the other starters are very bad and the bullpen is unimpressive. Detroit looks more like an 88-win team every day, and I can envision a scenario where Tampa Bay wins more games than them.
May 10th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
What do you make of John Danks? On the surface, he seems to fit in the Floyd and Contreras category, but I can’t find anything to say he’ll come back down. His BABIP actually suggest he might be a little unlucky. What is going on here?
May 11th, 2008 at 1:30 am
I haven’t seen Danks yet this year, but he was a very highly regarded prospect and he’s still only 23. He’s striking people out at essentially the same rate, but he’s shaved his walk rate down by one, and more importantly he’s seen a huge spike in his GB rate.
A 3:1 K:BB plus a decent ground ball rate is a great recipe for success on the major league level.
So far at least, it looks like he is for real — making him probably the No. 2 on the South Side behind Javier Vazquez.