This Jacoby Ellsbury Kid Might Turn Out OK
Published by Andrew Johnson April 23rd, 2008 in Sabermetrics, Red Sox
Up until tonight, Jacoby Ellsbury was having a quietly good season. He certainly wasn’t matching the fanfare he generated last year during Boston’s World Series run. So what does he go and do? Hit two home runs in another comeback win for the Red Sox and kind of spoils what I’m about to write.
Ellsbury has 52 at-bats this season, and while his batting average is 45 points lower than it was last season in his first 116 at-bats, he’s better in almost every other way.
He’s got eight stolen bases compared to nine last year. He’s already got 13 walks compared to eight last year in more than double the playing time. And he’s got three home runs now, compared to three last year.
Two things in particular stick out to me. First the truly impressive bump in his walk rate. Assuming we’re dealing with SSS issues and he takes a step back from this impressive start, he’s still looking like the rare ideal leadoff hitter — one who combines speed with an outstanding ability to get on base. Second, the fact that, entering tonight, he was actually a little unlucky (that may have changed by the morning). According to The Hardball Times, Ellsbury had a whopping 32.6 line drive percentage, but a BABIP of .286.
Based on the correlation between LD% and BABIP in this study by Dave Studeman, Ellsbury should have a BABIP of .446.
OK, so the elephant in the room here is that, of course, Ellsbury isn’t this good. He’s not going to have a LD% that high for the rest of the season. But even when he comes down to earth, I don’t see why Ellsbury, with his stellar bat control, can’t be among the league leaders in LD%. That means lots of hits, and probably lots of doubles, considering he plays his home games in double-happy Fenway Park.
His performance Tuesday notwithstanding, I’m still not sold on the home run power, the thing that could turn him into a true superstar, but with his contact skills and his walk rate, and of course his speed and excellent defense, the Red Sox appear to have a special player on their hands.
3 Responses to “This Jacoby Ellsbury Kid Might Turn Out OK”
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Yeah, Ellsbury has looked really good. We need to get rid of Coco, as much as I love him (which isn’t honestly that much).
On a slightly unrelated note, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that this is the only 2 HR game of Ellsbury’s career. I’ll get back to everyone in 15 years to say “I told you so!!!!”
10 HR in 1017 minor league ABs. 6 HR in 168 MLB ABs. Has he put on weight since being called up? Is he getting Dominican protein shakes from Big Papi? I really can’t see this power as legit. But yeah, he is an excellent player. I thought a lot of it was just Boston-prospect-hype, but he is for real.
This is what Theo had to say last month about Ellsbury’s power potential:
“He will eventually have more power than people give him credit for. It’s really a matter of him taking his BP swing into the game, because if you watch his BP, he has incredible natural backspin that he generates. He’s stronger now, and his ball really carries. But even from the day we signed him, he was able to go deep into the bullpens in Fenway in batting practice. I think that with any young hitter it’s a matter of refining your approach and getting comfortable, so that eventually you can take your best swing – your BP swing – into the game with you on a more consistent basis, against all kinds of pitching. For some players, that process takes them their whole career. It takes them years to make that adjustment. With him, once he does that, I think you’ll see a lot more power.”
Whether that actually happens is anybody’s guess, but Pesky’s Pole should help.