Braves in ‘08? Seriously?
ESPN’s Jayson Stark, who generally seems to be a relatively sane, rational human being, has picked the Atlanta Braves to win the World Series in 2008. Apparently this is the trendy ’sleeper’ pick for this season, and if you really want to go out on a limb, I guess the Braves are as good a team as any to pick.
What puzzles me about Stark’s prediction is the simple fact that the Braves will have a hard enough time making the playoffs, let alone winning the pennant or winning the World Series. Granted, they have what projects to be a great offense led by Mark Teixiera and Chipper Jones, but their pitching staff is just one big question mark after another.
Although Smoltz had a great 2007 season, it should probably be noted that he is almost 41 and is already nursing a sole shoulder. Tim Hudson was also very effective last year and should have at least a soild 2008, but after him things get shaky real quick. The backend of the rotation, comprised of Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, and Jair Jurrjens, is a trainwreck waiting to happen.
Glavine is 42 and coming off a thoroughly mediocre season with Mets. At best, he’ll give the Braves 200 innings of league-average pitching—nothing to sneeze at, but also nothing to get excited about in a #3 starter. A more likely result is that Father Time begins to catch up with him and he continues his decline. As for Mike Hampton—do I even need to say anything? He’s 35 years old and hasn’t pitched a full season since 2004, when he posted a mediocre 101 ERA+. Jair Jurrjens projects as the Braves’ fifth starter, and while he has decent potential, expecting a 22 year old with underwhelming stuff and 0 innings at AAA to succeed in his first big league season is a stretch. As far as the Braves’ bullpen goes, there is very little beyond Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan—both of whom are solid but also significantly outperformed their FIP (fielding independent ERA) last year.
What makes Stark’s man-love for the Braves even more perplexing is the fact that they play in the same division as the Mets and the Phillies. In my mind, the Braves are nowhere near as good as the Mets, whose offense should be roughly as good as the Braves and whose pitching should be far superior. Call me crazy, but I do not see the Braves’ rotation competing with a rotation of Santana (better than Smoltz), Martinez (if healthy, better than Hudson), Maine (easily better than Glavine), Perez (easily better than Hampton), and Pelfrey (roughly equivalent to Jurrjens). The Mets’ bullpen is at worst equal with the Braves, and more likely it will be significantly better.
As far as a Braves/Phillies comparison, things are a little more even. Like the Braves, the Phillies feature a great offense coupled with underwhelming pitching. In terms of offense, the Phillies have a good chance of being better than the Braves—they scored a lot more runs last season, and while they lost Aaron Rowand, they might be just as good due to upgrading at third base and (hopefully) improved health for Chase Utley.
The top of the Phillies’ rotation (Myers, Hamels) is every bit as good as the Braves’, Moyer is roughly equivalent to Glavine, and the backend of the rotation looks equally as shaky as the Braves in Kendrick and Eaton. The two teams’ bullpens look roughly equal.
The point is that the Braves are seriously outclassed by the Mets, and in no way are they significantly better than the Phillies. For this reason, picking them to make the playoffs—let alone win the World Series—is questionable to say the least. Even if they do somehow make the World Series, can you really say that they stand a chance of beating the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Indians, or whatever AL team wins the pennant?
I suppose there is about a 5% chance that the Braves miraculously manage to win the World Series this year through a series of fluke performances and career years and Stark looks like a baseball Nostradamus, but there is also at least a 50% chance that the Braves do not even make the playoffs, which would make Stark look very stupid indeed. The fact that only two of his nineteen colleagues chose to Braves to make the WS, let alone win it, should probably be a hint to Stark that something in his analysis doesn’t add up.
I agree pretty much entirely with your analysis. My problem with Stark is that he uses a lot of wishful thinking arguments/hyperbole. For example, the whole “their rotation is so deep Chuck James and Buddy Carlisle will be in AAA!” argument is nonsense. For one, both those cats belong in AAA, at least if this is supposedly a World Series Champion. Second, one injury to any of the geriatrics means that one of those guys will be playing big roles for the Braves. I also enjoyed his claim that their bullpen is infinitely better because they could afford to trade Tyler Yates. Just because he led the team in appearances last year doesn’t mean he’s any good, which he wasn’t, it just means he stayed healthy and the rest of their bullpen was godawful.
But, hey, if the ‘06 Cardinals can do it, anyone can.
OK, I’ll be the contrarian.
A. It’s just a harmless prediction.
B. Do the Mets really lap the Braves by that much? Yes, the Mets have Wright, Reyes and Beltran, but they’re surrounded by the aging Carlos Delgado, the injury-prone Luis Castillo, Angel Pagan/Endy Chavez and Ryan Church at the corners and Brian Schneider was their Opening Day starter at catcher. Yes, the Mets have Santana, yes, I’d give them the edge right now, but I’m not convinced it’s as big as people think it is.
Andbytheway, the Braves underperformed their Pythagorean last year by four games, they were an 88-win team with basically the exact same personnel, except they get a full year of Mark Teixeira. Is it crazy? Maybe, but I don’t think it’s all that crazy. Here’s how I’d reckon the tale of the tape between these three teams:
C: McCann>>Ruiz>Schneider (Sig. edge to Braves)
1B: Teixeira~Howard>>Delgado
2B: Utley>>Johnson>>Castillo (Sig edge to Phils)
3B: Wright>Jones>>Feliz (slight edge to Mets based on d and durability)
SS: Reyes~Rollins>>Escobar
LF: Burrell>>Pagan~Diaz (Sig. edge to Phils)
CF: Beltran>>Victorino~Kotsay/Schafer (Sig. edge to Mets, though Schafer could be very good if he gets the call)
RF: Francouer>Jenkins/Werth>Church (Tons of upside for Frenchy)
SP1: Santana>Hamels>Smoltz (though you could switch Smoltz and Hamels and all three are probably top 10 pitchers in the NL)
SP2: Hudson>Myers>Pedro (Hudson is more durable than Pedro and not switching back from closing like Myers, in short he might not be better on a rate-by-inning level, but he’s not much worse and he’s much more likely to throw 175-200 IP)
SP3: Maine>>Glavine~Moyer (Sig. edge Mets)
SP4: Perez>>Jurrjens>Kendrick (Sig. edge to Mets, Kendrick is godawful and I expect him to be out of the majors by July)
SP5: Pelfrey~Hampton~Eaton (all dreadful for different reasons)
The Mets really only distance themselves from the other two teams in the NL East at the back end of their rotation in my estimation, and they’re almost painfully thin at their non-star positions in the lineup. I don’t think they “seriously outclass” either of the other two teams in this division.
I think you might be underestimating Ryan Church. Last year his WARP was 5.9 and pecota is projecting similar production this year, which would make him better or at least equal to the Werth/Jenkins combo. Plus, Church is an antisemite and therefore a great clubhouse guy. Victorino is definitely better than Kotsay and/or Schafer, and the Mets’ OF should get a boost when Moises Alou returns.
Right on on Church and Kotsay is a corpse, but Schafer has the potential to equal Victorino’s production when you adjust for ballpark. That’s nitpicking though.
My point is the Mets are not a deep team and are a bit overrated right now.