Comments on: Braves in ‘08? Seriously?

By: Andrew Johnson

Andrew Johnson — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 18:50:38 +0000

Right on on Church and Kotsay is a corpse, but Schafer has the potential to equal Victorino’s production when you adjust for ballpark. That’s nitpicking though.

My point is the Mets are not a deep team and are a bit overrated right now.

By: Yigael Yadin

Yigael Yadin — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 14:58:08 +0000

I think you might be underestimating Ryan Church. Last year his WARP was 5.9 and pecota is projecting similar production this year, which would make him better or at least equal to the Werth/Jenkins combo. Plus, Church is an antisemite and therefore a great clubhouse guy. Victorino is definitely better than Kotsay and/or Schafer, and the Mets’ OF should get a boost when Moises Alou returns.

By: Andrew Johnson

Andrew Johnson — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 08:19:40 +0000

OK, I’ll be the contrarian.

A. It’s just a harmless prediction.

B. Do the Mets really lap the Braves by that much? Yes, the Mets have Wright, Reyes and Beltran, but they’re surrounded by the aging Carlos Delgado, the injury-prone Luis Castillo, Angel Pagan/Endy Chavez and Ryan Church at the corners and Brian Schneider was their Opening Day starter at catcher. Yes, the Mets have Santana, yes, I’d give them the edge right now, but I’m not convinced it’s as big as people think it is.

Andbytheway, the Braves underperformed their Pythagorean last year by four games, they were an 88-win team with basically the exact same personnel, except they get a full year of Mark Teixeira. Is it crazy? Maybe, but I don’t think it’s all that crazy. Here’s how I’d reckon the tale of the tape between these three teams:

C: McCann>>Ruiz>Schneider (Sig. edge to Braves)
1B: Teixeira~Howard>>Delgado
2B: Utley>>Johnson>>Castillo (Sig edge to Phils)
3B: Wright>Jones>>Feliz (slight edge to Mets based on d and durability)
SS: Reyes~Rollins>>Escobar
LF: Burrell>>Pagan~Diaz (Sig. edge to Phils)
CF: Beltran>>Victorino~Kotsay/Schafer (Sig. edge to Mets, though Schafer could be very good if he gets the call)
RF: Francouer>Jenkins/Werth>Church (Tons of upside for Frenchy)
SP1: Santana>Hamels>Smoltz (though you could switch Smoltz and Hamels and all three are probably top 10 pitchers in the NL)
SP2: Hudson>Myers>Pedro (Hudson is more durable than Pedro and not switching back from closing like Myers, in short he might not be better on a rate-by-inning level, but he’s not much worse and he’s much more likely to throw 175-200 IP)
SP3: Maine>>Glavine~Moyer (Sig. edge Mets)
SP4: Perez>>Jurrjens>Kendrick (Sig. edge to Mets, Kendrick is godawful and I expect him to be out of the majors by July)
SP5: Pelfrey~Hampton~Eaton (all dreadful for different reasons)

The Mets really only distance themselves from the other two teams in the NL East at the back end of their rotation in my estimation, and they’re almost painfully thin at their non-star positions in the lineup. I don’t think they “seriously outclass” either of the other two teams in this division.

By: Yigael Yadin

Yigael Yadin — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 02:58:01 +0000

I agree pretty much entirely with your analysis. My problem with Stark is that he uses a lot of wishful thinking arguments/hyperbole. For example, the whole “their rotation is so deep Chuck James and Buddy Carlisle will be in AAA!” argument is nonsense. For one, both those cats belong in AAA, at least if this is supposedly a World Series Champion. Second, one injury to any of the geriatrics means that one of those guys will be playing big roles for the Braves. I also enjoyed his claim that their bullpen is infinitely better because they could afford to trade Tyler Yates. Just because he led the team in appearances last year doesn’t mean he’s any good, which he wasn’t, it just means he stayed healthy and the rest of their bullpen was godawful.

But, hey, if the ‘06 Cardinals can do it, anyone can.