Defensive Indifference

Before he has even played one regular season game for them, the Tigers have signed Miguel Cabrera to an 8 year extension worth $153.3 million. The contract is the fourth largest contract in MLB history, and will be finalized once Cabrera passes a physical.

In general, I would argue that a contract of this length is never a good idea. And despite how good and how young Miguel Cabrera is, I think the principle holds even for him.

The thing is, no matter how good a player is at the time, projecting his performance eight years into the future is quite literally impossible. This is why shorter contracts make sense—they carry less risk for the team since they can re-evaluate the player’s performance before making additional financial commitments. There are dozens of players in MLB history who had amazing 4 or 5 year runs early in their career and then faded away or dropped off the map completely, recent examples including people like Nomar Garciaparra and Dwight Gooden. Granted, each had specific problems that stunted their performance (injuries, drugs?), but problems like these were not necessarily forseeable while the players were phenomenally successful early on. I am not arguing that Cabrera is doomed to a similar fate, just that the risk of this occurring is significant enough to make an 8 year contract less than ideal.

Plus, it’s not like Cabrera has the perfect athlete’s build. Sure, he has been very durable thus far in his career, but he has had weight issues in the past, and it’s not terribly hard to imagine this catching up with him. Also, a few years of good health does not mean a freak injury cannot occur, no matter who the player is.

If anyone merits an 8 year contract, 24 year-old Miguel Cabrera is near the top of the list. Yet that is just it—no one really does merit a contract of that length. It is simply too risky for the club, and greatly reduces the club’s financial flexibility for years to come, especially if changing circumstances require the club to adopt a new strategy. Just look at A-Rod’s 10 year contract with the Rangers and how that turned out, and that was even with the player continuing to perform at a high level.

Certainly there is a solid chance that this will work out well for the Tigers. After all, if Cabrera continues to perform at a very high level, $19 million a year is not exceedingly expensive, especially if you factor in the salary inflation that is sure to take place in the next 8 years. Still, though, I can’t help but think that the Tigers could have just as easily signed Cabrera to a 5 year extension (perhaps with a few option years tacked on to the end) that would have locked Cabrera up for the forseeable future with significantly lower risk and significantly greater flexibility. It might just be me, but it seems like this recent trend of locking up young players before free agency is finally starting to get out of hand.