Comments on: Clay vs. Joba: A Final Reckoning

By: Clay Buchholz Is Maybe, Probably Tapping That (But Really Probably Not; Just Enjoy the Pictures, Pervs) at Defensive Indifference

Thu, 13 Mar 2008 08:25:58 +0000

[…] Buchholz. Apparently it was on the Howard Stern show, details schmetails. I guess this settles the Joba Chamberlain-Clay Buchholz debate for […]

By: Bobby Swift

Bobby Swift — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 22:10:50 +0000

There’s no doubt that Joba gets more press than Buchholz, or any other rookie for that matter.

I’ve seen articles from national media outlets about Pedroia giving up his scholarship for the betterment of his college team (ASU?), but I just haven’t seen the same type of press (outside of Yankees sites) about Clay’s laptop thefts. I don’t believe that either is important when it comes to baseball, but that just seemed odd to me. Maybe it’s because he gets less press - that’s certainly possible.

I said he was more of an injury risk over the next 6 years because he is a year older, all else being equal. It’s probably pretty marginal, and of course all else is not equal. I am not sure which bodytype is more of a risk - Chamberlain’s thickness or Clay’s thin frame.

By: Andrew Johnson

Andrew Johnson — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 07:37:16 +0000

Just out of curiosity, why do you say Buchholz is more of an injury risk?

I know that the injury nexus study by Nate Silver and Will Carroll says injury risk gradually increases after age 25, but Chamberlain is still well within the injury nexus for young pitchers, making him a really big injury risk in the next two seasons.

Folks have also cited Joba’s injury history at Nebraska, and conversely Buchholz’s rather lithe, wiry frame is often cited as a reason he won’t hold up well over a full season.

I don’t particularly buy into either, but that statement piqued my curiosity.

As for the media stuff, two random points.

1. Joba Chamberlain was on ESPNNews yesterday.
2. I think Buchholz gets lost in the shuffle in Boston behind the more, ummm, effervescent debuts made by Dustin Pedroia and then Jacoby Ellsbury in the playoffs. Most New York and Boston prospects are going to be overhyped to some extent, but, if anything, I’d argue Buchholz flies under the radar compared to the other Sox youngsters.

By: Bobby Swift

Bobby Swift — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 05:23:46 +0000

Pitchers peak at age 24, according to Tango. So all else being equal, Buchholz is more of a finished product than Chamberlain is, i.e., he has less room to improve. This also will make Buchholz more of an injury risk over the next six years than Joba, all else being equal. So I believe this should be a consideration when deciding “who would you rather have?” Although their “stuff” is unlikely to change much, this is only of many factors that determine performance.

As for the Buchholz coverage, maybe it’s just because I spend most of my time in the Boston area, but I hear a lot about him. There’s an interview with him on ESPN’s MLB page right now. I think he got a lot of coverage, especially after the no hitter.

By: Andrew Johnson

Andrew Johnson — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 18:18:05 +0000

Maybe because we just don’t hear a lot about Buchholz in the first place yet?

In fairness to Clay, it was a one-time thing, not a track record of poor behavior.

The age might serve as a better tiebreaker if they were hitters, with pitchers my sabermetric hunch is they kind of are what they are even under-25.