Catch-22
This article over at AOL poses an intriguing fantasy keeper league dilemma: who to take out of the top young pitcher trio of Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, and Phil Hughes. To me there’s no clear choice, but Herrera concludes that Joba The Hutt is the best bet based on his lights-out late season stint in the majors, his durable build, and the fact that Joba seems to have “the bite of an ace” (whatever that means). Picking Chamberlain certainly can be argued for, but I’m not sure the arguments Herrera uses to dismiss the candidacies of Buchholz and Hughes hold water.
He is worried about Buchholz’s “wiry frame”, pointing to Clay’s 6′3″, 190 pound body, but this seems silly because there’s no reason to think Buchholz can’t beef up after a couple more years of professional weight training. Hughes, on the other hand, he doesn’t like because of the way he was affected by his hamstring injury and worries of command issues, but then neglects to mention that Hughes is the youngest of the trio, a year younger than Joba and two years younger than Buchholz. With the off-season to recover, there’s no reason to think Hughes won’t be perfectly healthy come spring training.
As I said, you can’t really go wrong with any of these pitchers, but this thought experiment has particular relevance to this blog because our very own Andrew Johnson has precisely this dilemma to solve in the coming weeks. He has all three in our Roto six player keeper league (three pitchers, three hitters), and because he also has Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb he will probably only pick one of the three. Unless he decides to chance taking two, prospect fiend that he is, and drops Webb.
If it were me who had to pick, I’d probably go with Buchholz. Hughes I can safely exclude for the simple fact that he doesn’t seem to have the one nasty out-pitch that the others have (Buchholz’s knee-breaking curve and Joba’s 100 mph heater), and because Hughes will probably need another year of seasoning. The other two are ready now, but Joba’s track record as a starter isn’t as spotless as Buchholz’s and I have the persistent feeling that Joba’s destined for the pen, no matter what Mr. Hankie the Yankee Douche says. Joba’s already proved he can handle coming out of the pen, and his demeanor and pitching repertoire fit the classic closer mold. Buchholz’s no-hitter doesn’t hurt his case, or course, and, man, that curve is nasty.
Hopefully, Andrew will be willing to share his thoughts on this quandary from the perspective of someone who has money riding on the the decision.
Where do you think Tom got the idea for the post? It certainly didn’t come out of thin air, and well, I am the Baseball Editor.
Tom is a fantasy whiz and he and I have talked extensively on the subject and I can assure you his FanHouse analysis is mostly just quick hits because that’s the style of the blog … and, full disclosure, he does tend to rely on video and scouting analysis more than us stat geeks.
You can make an argument for all three, but I think putting Hughes behind the other two is the right call, even if you want to quibble with the methodology.
I’m leaning toward Buchholz at this juncture, but I must admit that sentimentality — my Red Sox fandom — is playing a decent-sized role. It doesn’t seem like you can go wrong with any of the three and the reliability of Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy affords me a little more room for an emotional decision with my final pitching keeper than I’d ordinarily have. If I didn’t have two of the best 10 pitchers in baseball, I don’t think I’d be quite so cavalier.
I’m not worried about Buchholz’s frame … there’s no ideal body type for a pitcher, IMO, but I am a little concerned about his fastball command. It was spotty at times last year and he has the worst fastball of the three when all are healthy. Of course the reason I’m so bananas about Clay is because he matches an above-average fastball with two plus offerings in the curve and the change (which I actually think is his best pitch).
OTOH, Joba has two pitches that grade out in the 70s … and hey, that worked out pretty well for Randy Johnson (New York stint excluded).