Defensive Indifference

As promised, I now bring you five pitching prospects that are largely underrated by the baseball media but nonetheless are worth following in the coming years. These are all pitchers that I believe have a solid shot of making the majors and getting spots in starting rotations, although I should note that pitching prospects are notoriously difficult to project.

1. David Hernandez, BAL (5/13/85) This guy gets no love from prospect experts. Not ranked in the Orioles’ top 10 at either BA or BP, he was ranked 19th by John Sickels, who gave him a grade of C—not exactly a strong endorsement. In some ways, it is easy to see why Hernandez gets little recognition; after all, he did post a 4.95 ERA in high-A this past season.

A deeper look at the numbers reveals quite a different story, however. In 145 IP, Hernandez, struck out 168 batters—that’s a very impressive 27% of batters faced. At the same time, Hernandez showed pretty good control, only walking 7.4% of batters. Hernandez’ achilles heel this past season was the long ball: he gave up about one HR/9 IP, a pretty high rate for a pitcher. Hernandez did get a little unlucky on balls in play, however, with a .330 BABIP (20 points above the league average). As an indicator of his true ability, First Inning gives him a Fielding Independent ERA of 3.59 for 2007. While Hernandez clearly has a long way to go, it is just as clear that he has the stuff to be a very successful pitcher, as his peripherals show. Assuming the Orioles give him a shot in AA, next season could be critical to Hernandez’s development. Wherever he’s assigned, however, he’s worth keeping an eye on as a possible breakout candidate.

2. Hector Rondon, CLE (2/26/88) Not ranked by BA or BP, Rondon wasn’t even ranked in Cleveland’s top 20 by Sickels. I find this strange, since Rondon was young for his league (19 in A) and held his own while showing flashes of excellence. In 136 IP, Rondon’s ERA was a mediocre 4.37, but he showed very good control and solid stuff as well—walking only 4.7% of BF and striking out 19.6%. First Inning places Rondon’s Fielding Independent ERA for 2007 at 3.94. Like Hernandez, Rondon is a good candidate for a breakout season in 2008, especially considering his young age.

3. Trevor Reckling, LAA (5/22/89) Drafted in the 8th round of of this year’s draft, Reckling’s debut out-shined the vast majority of his more highly-touted counterparts. Granted it was only 36 innings in Rookie League ball, but Reckling utterly dominated in those innings at the age of 18, just months removed from his high school graduation. Reckling struck out 55 batters in those 36 innings, while only walking 7, good for a ridiculous 37.2 K% and 4.7 BB%. Reckling’s ERA of 2.75 was outstanding, but he probably deserved better, with a FIP ERA of 2.48. Of course, it’s hard to truly gauge a player based on 36 innings of rookie ball, but it’s also hard to imagine it was just a fluke. Reckling appears to be a pitcher with long-term potential that is certainly worth following in ‘08.

4. James Parr, ATL (2/27/86) Unranked in the BA and BP top 10s for Atlanta, I am shocked to say that he wasn’t even ranked in Sickels’ top 20. The reason I am shocked by this is because Parr dominated the high A Florida State League and then held his own in AA, all of this while pitching at the young age of 21. In 39 innings in high A ball, Parr posted 3.18 ERA (2.29 FIP ERA) while striking out 24.2% of batters and walking only 3.9%. In 98 innings in AA, Parr struck out 18% of batters while maintaining good control, only walking 6% of batters. His ERA in AA was 4.59, but BABIP of .350 was way too high, indicating some bad luck. As a better measure of his performance in AA, his FIP ERA was a very solid 3.71. When you factor in that Parr was quite young to be pitching in AA, he has the makings of a very good prospect, certainly one who deserves more respect. He’ll most likely start next season in AA again, and if he continues to develop, he could be major league ready within a year or two.

5. Zach Braddock, MIL (8/23/87) Drafted in the 18th round in 2005, Braddock came out of nowhere in 2007, destroying the competition in A ball for 47 innings before a season ending injury. Striking out an absurd 37.2% of batters (68 K in 47 IP), Braddock walked a decent 8.2%. Braddock put up a spectacular 1.15 ERA, although a low BABIP (.276) means that he was a little lucky as his FIP ERA of 1.95 indicates. Still, a 20 year old putting up a sub-2.00 ERA in A ball is nothing to sneeze at. It will be very interesting to see how Braddock pitches in a full season of baseball. Although his 2007 performance was brief, it was enough to show that Braddock has electric stuff. 2008 will be a chance for Braddock to solidify his prospect status, assuming good health.