Defensive Indifference

Given that there is little actual baseball news to report on this time of year (as evidenced by my last post), I thought that I would start posting every now and then on one of my sub-obsessions within my general obsession with baseball—the analysis of minor leaguers and prospects. To start with, I thought I would identify some sleeper prospects—players who have good shots at being impact major leaguers but are overlooked by the mainstream baseball media.

Today, I will identify five hitting prospects who I think deserve more attention than they recieve, and in the next few days I will post a list of five pitchers. Before I start, however, I should give a bit of a disclaimer. While I read traditional scouting reports on prospects, my analysis is driven primarily by the player’s actual performance in the minor leagues. Thus, while I consider anecdotal evidence of “tools” to be somewhat important, I am far more convinced by proven skills (i.e. plate discipline, K/BB ratio) or actual evidence of these “tools” being employed successfully. After all, it is a proven fact that minor league performance is a far better predictor of major league performance than are projectable “tools.”

So, without further ado, I present you with five hitting prospects who are largely under the radar.

1. OF Josh Reddick, BOS (2/19/87) While Reddick is generally recognized near the bottom of Boston’s top 10 list (he was ranked #10 by Baseball America, BP, and John Sickels), I still think he deserves more credit. Despite being only 6 months older than the far more heralded Lars Anderson, Reddick hit significantly better on the same single-A Greenville team this past season, sporting a line of .306/.352/.531. While his walk rate doesn’t approach Anderson’s (6.9% to 13.5%), his strikeout rate is much better, and is quite impressive for a hitter with his power (12.6% vs. Anderson’s 21.1%). Furthermore, Reddick showed more power than Anderson: .225 vs. .154 ISOP. Reddick’s low strikeout rate could allow him to develop into one of those rare contact hitters who also have pop (think Shawn Green).

2. SS Chris Nelson, COL (9/3/85) While he gets some love from Sickels (ranked #5), Nelson isn’t even ranked in Colorado’s top 10 by Baseball America. Granted he may not have been young for his league (21 in A+), but he certainly wasn’t old, and he put up some impressive numbers, showing a nice mix of tools and developed skills. Nelson hit .287/.357/.499 for Modesto with 19 HR and 42 2B, and he also stole 27 bases at a very high 84% success rate. Certainly the fact that Nelson was in one of the most notorious hitters leagues in all the minors (the California League) should be taken into account, but his well-developed skills (proven speed, solid power, solid plate discipline) should transfer well to higher levels. Plus, he’s only 22 and still developing.

3. OF Michael Brantley, MIL (5/15/87) After his promotion mid-season, Brantley was one of the youngest players in AA in 2007. And while he didn’t exactly tear the cover off the ball, Brantley didn’t sink either, hitting .251/.345/.294 and stealing 17 bases at an 85% success rate. Furthermore, his BABIP was somewhat low (especially for someone with his speed) at .290. In his half season in A+, Brantley hit .335/.413/.440 (albeit with a .366 BABIP). My guess is that his true ability is somewhere in the middle, perhaps .290/.380/.380 which is nonetheless very valuable for someone with his speed. What I am most impressed by about Brantley is his plate discipline—in AA he only struck out 11.2% of the time while walking an impressive 13.4% of his PA. Given his youth and skills, I think there is a good chance that Brantley could develop into a Jacoby Ellsbury-esque player, although with a better walk rate and a little less speed. Despite all this, Brantley was not in BA’s top 10, although he was ranked #11 by Sickels.

4. C John Jaso, TBD (9/19/83) Another one of my personal favorites is Tampa Bay catching prospect John Jaso. While his lack of recognition is somewhat more understandable given Tampa Bay’s stacked system, I still think he deserves a spot in the top 10, which neither BA nor BP gave him. Jaso is certainly not a young prospect (he was 23 in AA this past season), but he is a very well-refined offensive catcher, something that is not too common in the upper minors. This past season, he hit .316/.407/.484, walking an impressive 13.3% of his PA and only striking out 10.9% of the time. Granted, he doesn’t have overwhelming power, but his ISOP of .168 is certainly above average, especially for a catcher. Assuming he doesn’t hit a roadblock in AAA, Jaso could be Tampa’s starting catcher by late 2008 or 2009.

5. 1B Logan Morrison, FLA (8/25/87) I can’t for the life of me understand the lack of recognition this guy gets. At the tender age of 20, Morrison hit .267/.343/.483 in A despite a low .291 BABIP (especially low for A). Morrison had a good 10.2% walk rate, and his strikeout rate of 18.5% is very manageable for a power hitter. One warning sign that I would mention are his home/road splits—he hit significantly better on his home turf, which is a pretty strong hitters’ park. Still, given his age and performance, Morrison is a prospect worth watching.

Stay tuned for five my pitching sleepers in the next few days.