Two More Years! Two More Years!
According to Baseball Prospectus’ John Perrotto, Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek will sign a two-year contract extension worth around $20 million that would keep the backstop in Boston through 2010, at which point he plans to retire from the game.
Varitek is viewed by many as the backbone of the current Sox teams that have achieved so much success, not just because he’s one of the better hitting catchers around, but also because of his tireless preparation with the pitching staff. Still, Varitek is entering his age 36 season, never a good age to be investing a lot of coin in someone who plays the most demanding position on the diamond.
So are the Red Sox doing the right thing?
One tool we can turn to is BP’s very own PECOTA projections. They paint a fairly optimistic picture for Varitek over the life of his rumored extension. After putting up a .278 EqA in 2007, PECOTA projects a repeat .278 EqA in 2008, then EqAs of .286 and .264. Unfortunately, it doesn’t project a lot of durability for Varitek, with him making less than 300 plate appearance over each of the next three seasons.
$10 million a season might seem like a lot for a catcher who might only be capable of part-time duty in the future, but as with everything, you need a little context. The Red Sox have virtually no catching ready to help in the upper level of their farm system right now. George Kottaras *might* have the bat, but there are concerns about his defensive ability. There also just aren’t many catchers to be had out there, and even fewer of Varitek’s caliber — even as his production diminishes in the decline phase of his career.
Like the Yankees with Jorge Posada, the Red Sox don’t have much of a choice. It’s either re-sign Varitek or enter the complete unknown — free agency, trade. Unlike Posada, if Boston locks up Varitek now, it won’t have to pay for a career campaign in dollars or years.
I’m not crazy about the Sox having a 38-year-old catcher in 2010, but I’m even less crazy about the alternative. What they should do is prepare for the good possibility that Varitek will be less able to handle the kind of load he has in the past and scrounge around for a better backup than Doug Mirabelli, who was re-signed by the team this week.
This is also where Coco Crisp could come into play. Assuming Boston doesn’t trade a center fielder for Johan Santana, Crisp will likely be traded in a separate deal — one that could bring a young catcher like Chris Ianetta or Taylor Teagarden in return to complement or maybe even replace Varitek down the line.