Blue Jays and Cardinals Set to Swap Third Basemen
So it appears that the Blue Jays and Cardinals will be swapping aging third basemen soon, assuming Glaus and Rolen pass their physicals on Monday. This trade is pretty interesting—it’s not often you see potentially All-Star caliber players at the same position traded straight up. Of course, both Glaus and Rolen had serious issues this past season—whether it was injuries, steroid usage, or declining production.
Just two seasons ago (in 2006), both Glaus and Rolen made the All-Star teams in their respective leagues. Glaus hit .252/.355/.513 for the Blue Jays while Rolen hit .296/.369/.518 for the Cardinals—both in essentially full seasons of play. This past season, however, Glaus was limited to 115 games because of injury, while Rolen only appeared in 112. Both, meanwhile, experienced at least somewhat declining production in the games they did play, with Glaus’ slugging percentage falling from .513 to .473, and Rolen’s batting line falling to a putrid .265/.331/.398.
The other issue, of course, is that Glaus was named in the Mitchell Report released last month. In the report, Glaus is identifed as having purchased nandrolone and testosterone from a pharmacy in 2003 and 2004, using a dubious prescription issued by a doctor who later had his practice suspended.
So who wins in this trade—the Blue Jays or the Cardinals? Financially, the trade is pretty even—Rolen is owed 33 million over the next 3 seasons, while Glaus is owed 24.5 million over the next two years. In other words, the players basically make the same amount, but Rolen has one more year on his contract. In terms of injury risk, the trade also seems pretty fair. Both Rolen and Glaus have had injury problems throughout their careers (not just last year) and both seem equally likely to encounter injury problems again. For me, the steroid issue is not really important. Except in terms of P.R., it should have little effect. Glaus has almost certainly stopped using steroids since the more stringent testing began, and if he uses HGH, it is unlikely to stop just because of the Mitchell Report.
When all is said and done, there are a few things that tip the balances for me in favor of the Cardinals in this trade. First off, Glaus is a little more than a year younger than Rolen. When combined with the shorter contract, this gives the Cards slightly less risk and also more flexibility. Second, Glaus will be switching from the more competitive AL to the less competitive NL, while Rolen will be doing the reverse. Finally, I am not fully convinced that Rolen’s troubles are simply due to injuries. While it is quite possible that poor health explains his terrible production last year, it is also possible that Rolen is simply beginning to decline, particularly in the power department. If this is the case, then his clear fielding edge over Glaus will not be nearly enough to make up for the loss in offensive production.
The bottom line is this: both Glaus and Rolen are players with high risk, but also potentially high rewards. As they have shown in their careers, both are capable of producing with the best of all third basemen. And while it is tough to say who will be better at avoiding injury, the facts seem to support Glaus as the better bet in terms of production—both because of the shorter contract and the better recent history. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that he’ll be moving from the AL down to AAA St. Louis.