Comments on: There’s Actual Hope for Bert http://defensive-indifference.com/2008/01/09/theres-actual-hope-for-bert/ Wed, 07 Jan 2009 16:49:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.2.2 By: Andrew Johnson http://defensive-indifference.com/2008/01/09/theres-actual-hope-for-bert/#comment-107 Andrew Johnson Wed, 09 Jan 2008 20:51:27 +0000 http://defensive-indifference.com/2008/01/09/theres-actual-hope-for-bert/#comment-107 Not sure I agree Rock is more deserving than Bert, but I think we honestly have to table the Raines discussion for now. It's stupid, but this is how the Hall of Fame voting works, candidates "gain momentum" over time and much of the electorate simply didn't believe Raines was a first-ballot worthy player. That belief is ill-founded, but that's the way it works. Now, I don't understand why voters seem to vacillate so much on the subject, but I don't think it's neccessarily a bad thing that players get 15 chances to be elected. What am I getting at? I'm not all that worried about Rock, not yet at least. Next year's vote will tell us a lot more about his chances because, as I pointed out, right or wrong Raines just wasn't viewed as a first-ballot guy. I think the more time goes on and the more people rely on statistics instead of memory to evaluate Raines' career, the more likely he is to get elected, but he's just a baby in this process. We've seen how the sabermetric community has been able to really prop up Blyleven's chances of election to the point where he's very likely to make it now, and I think the same will happen with Raines, who got a lot of high-profile MSM support already. I don't think the HoF voters are ever going to be much more than a petty, snobby bunch, but what really matters is that the RIGHT players get in, not that they get in in the right order or at the right time, because that's never going to change. So I'm going to focus on Blyleven, because he is the biggest oversight right now and he has fewer chances left. Let's see how Rock does next year in the voting and see what kind of long-term effect Rickey Henderson's election have (I suspect it'll help Rock). Not sure I agree Rock is more deserving than Bert, but I think we honestly have to table the Raines discussion for now.

It’s stupid, but this is how the Hall of Fame voting works, candidates “gain momentum” over time and much of the electorate simply didn’t believe Raines was a first-ballot worthy player. That belief is ill-founded, but that’s the way it works. Now, I don’t understand why voters seem to vacillate so much on the subject, but I don’t think it’s neccessarily a bad thing that players get 15 chances to be elected.

What am I getting at? I’m not all that worried about Rock, not yet at least. Next year’s vote will tell us a lot more about his chances because, as I pointed out, right or wrong Raines just wasn’t viewed as a first-ballot guy.

I think the more time goes on and the more people rely on statistics instead of memory to evaluate Raines’ career, the more likely he is to get elected, but he’s just a baby in this process. We’ve seen how the sabermetric community has been able to really prop up Blyleven’s chances of election to the point where he’s very likely to make it now, and I think the same will happen with Raines, who got a lot of high-profile MSM support already.

I don’t think the HoF voters are ever going to be much more than a petty, snobby bunch, but what really matters is that the RIGHT players get in, not that they get in in the right order or at the right time, because that’s never going to change. So I’m going to focus on Blyleven, because he is the biggest oversight right now and he has fewer chances left.

Let’s see how Rock does next year in the voting and see what kind of long-term effect Rickey Henderson’s election have (I suspect it’ll help Rock).

]]> By: Yigael Yadin http://defensive-indifference.com/2008/01/09/theres-actual-hope-for-bert/#comment-106 Yigael Yadin Wed, 09 Jan 2008 19:52:54 +0000 http://defensive-indifference.com/2008/01/09/theres-actual-hope-for-bert/#comment-106 As possible counter-evidence to the idea that the writers are getting smarter I present Mr. Timothy Rock Raines and his 24% of the vote. It's good that Bert's finally getting his due, but Raines got totally snubbed and is probably an even more deserving Hall candidate than Herr Blyleven. As possible counter-evidence to the idea that the writers are getting smarter I present Mr. Timothy Rock Raines and his 24% of the vote. It’s good that Bert’s finally getting his due, but Raines got totally snubbed and is probably an even more deserving Hall candidate than Herr Blyleven.

]]> By: Andrew Johnson http://defensive-indifference.com/2008/01/09/theres-actual-hope-for-bert/#comment-105 Andrew Johnson Wed, 09 Jan 2008 07:48:36 +0000 http://defensive-indifference.com/2008/01/09/theres-actual-hope-for-bert/#comment-105 An addendum: Blyleven has five years left on the ballot, and I expect he'll fall back a little bit next year with Rickey Henderson in his first year (can't wait for that speech!) and Rice almost certain to make it in his final year on the ballot. I can smell the sympathy votes from here! 2010 might be difficult too with Barry Larkin and Roberto Alomar on the ballot, but 2011 and 2012 are relatively barren of talent, leaving Blyleven with two great shots to make his final push for the Hall. I expect him to make it in 2012, far too late, but hey the important thing is that he makes it in the grand scheme of things. An addendum:

Blyleven has five years left on the ballot, and I expect he’ll fall back a little bit next year with Rickey Henderson in his first year (can’t wait for that speech!) and Rice almost certain to make it in his final year on the ballot. I can smell the sympathy votes from here!

2010 might be difficult too with Barry Larkin and Roberto Alomar on the ballot, but 2011 and 2012 are relatively barren of talent, leaving Blyleven with two great shots to make his final push for the Hall. I expect him to make it in 2012, far too late, but hey the important thing is that he makes it in the grand scheme of things.

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