What to Do About Manny?
Who would have thought four years ago when the Red Sox put Manny Ramirez on irrevocable waivers — free for any team to have — that we’d be here, talking about whether or not Boston should pick up Manny’s 2009 option for a cool $20 million. But here we are.
Once thought to be a destination not to be concerned with because of the Red Sox’ front office’s previous run-ins with the left fielder, the notion of Ramirez sticking around for a ninth year could be a plausible scenario.
Let’s start with Ramirez’ sudden love for life with the Red Sox, which was on display for at least a few to see immediately following his recent Duck Boat ride. Who would have envisioned the slugger finishing up his latest championship parade, pointing to the retired Sox numbers along the outside of Fenway Park wall and making it clear that he not only wanted to retire a Red Sox, but hoped to have his own number immortalized at Fenway.
I’m just going to ignore the last part of that sentence. As a Red Sox fan, there’s nothing I’d like to see more than Manny Ramirez’s No. 24 retired on the right field facade. As crazy and as much of a flake as he is, I love the guy. From a purely sentimental perspective, OF COURSE I want to see Manny return for another year. The Red Sox front office, though, prides itself on its cold, collected business decisions. With that in mind, what are the chances they actually pick up Manny’s option?
The first thing to understand is that this isn’t Manny Ramirez the Hall of Fame hitter anymore. Ramirez has missed 61 games the last two seasons, a sign that he’s getting older and the bumps and bruises from playing every day are starting to take their toll on the slugger. Equally distressing is last year’s dip in production. Ramirez hit 14 points below his career batting average, 21 points below his career on-base percentage and, most troubling, 100 points below his career slugging average. Sure, it could be merely a down year on his way to Cooperstown, but Ramirez will be 36 next May 30. It’s not outrageous to assume he’s entering the decline phase of his career.
A look at Dan Fox’s Ball in Play chart reveals some interesting changes in Manny. One encouraging sign was his return to using all fields in 2007. Ramirez was extremely pull-happy in 2006, sending 50 percent of the balls he put in play into left field. This included sending a distressing 34 percent of fly balls to left, perhaps, and I’m speculating here, because of the looming giant green wall in his home ballpark. 2007 was a return to the status quo of his career. Ramirez pulled 42.4 percent of balls in play last year — the lowest in the last five seasons and he cut his fly ball pull rate nearly in half, dropping it to 18.3 percent. Anyone who has watched Ramirez regularly knows he’s at his best when he’s going to the opposite field with power — much in the same way as Alex Rodriguez. He got back to that in 2007. That’s encouraging.
What’s not is the dramatic drop in contact slugging average (cSLG) in 2007. He went from .780 in 2006, albeit a five-year high, to .596 this past season. That coincided with a 2 percent jump in his LD% from 23.2 to 25.1. See table below:
| Year | cPA | cBA | cSlug | GB% | FB% | LD% | POP% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 R | 480 | .385 | .696 | 37.5% | 35.6% | 16% | 10.8% | |
| 2004 R | 451 | .388 | .772 | 41.9% | 35.7% | 17.5% | 4.9% | |
| 2005 R | 441 | .367 | .746 | 38.3% | 34% | 20.9% | 6.8% | |
| 2006 R | 354 | .404 | .780 | 37% | 35.3% | 23.2% | 4.5% | |
| 2007 R | 399 | .358 | .596 | 38.8% | 29.8% | 25.1% | 6.3% | |
| Totals | 2125 | .380 | .718 | 38.8% | 34.2% | 20.2% | 6.8% |
It’s probably safe to assume at this point that Manny has lost a significant bit of batspeed over the last few seasons. It doesn’t look like he’s hitting the ball with quite the same authority, and barring a home chemistry set via Barry Bonds, he probably never will again.
Ramirez is still a very good hitter, but he’s not a Hall of Fame hitter in his prime anymore. He’s also a terrible defender, especially away from Fenway Park. He’d be best suited as a designated hitter where lousy defense wouldn’t impact his value, but, of course, that’s not an option in Boston. Is that worth $20 million? To most teams, probably not. But these are the Red Sox. They can afford luxuries, and a declining Ramirez is one I have to think they’ll indulge in.
There are good hitting prospects coming, but they’re in the low minors. Suffice to say, Lars Anderson, Aaron Bates and Ryan Kalish might arrive in mid-2009 at the earliest, and that’s assuming they don’t hit any roadblocks on the way (a dubious assumption). Miguel Cabrera is in Detroit and likely to stay there for the long-term. Alex Rodriguez is back in the Bronx. There probably won’t be many power hitters available, especially ones that are right-handed.
Even at a diminished level of performance, Ramirez is a known quantity, and while the pricetag is a high, a one-year commitment is peanuts to a big-market juggernaut like Boston. The beauty here is that the Red Sox hold all the cards. They can wait the entire season to see how Ramirez performs, to see if his decline accelerates or he bounces back. They can also wait to see if a younger power hitter — namely Mark Teixeira — becomes a free agent and pursue a more long-term solution. Oh yes, there’s also the ongoing Johan Santana saga. If the Red Sox acquire him and sign him to a lengthy extension, it may impact their willingness to pick up Manny’s option.
Regardless, I still think chances are good that Manny’s career in Boston continues longer than anyone would have guessed a few years ago. Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus has been espousing the view that it’s nearly impossible for a one-year deal to be bad for the last two winters, and I strongly agree with him. In effect, that’s what the Red Sox would be getting with Ramirez. High price. Low risk. Plenty of reward.
December 30th, 2007 at 7:14 pm
Yep, I agree. Unless Manny’s performance falls off the table this season, I’m fairly certain he’ll remain in Red Stockings at least for 2009.