Defensive Indifference

The 2008 Hall of Fame ballot is out and the general consensus around the baseball blogosphere and among the cognoscenti seems to be that the field is weak, there are no sure things and that could open the door for a weak, undeserving player or two (Goose Gossage and Jim Rice) to finally get into Cooperstown.

I really wish this sentiment, which seems to have permeated many corners, would just go away. It’s just not true. There are two more than deserving Hall of Famers among the lot, people just seem to be ignoring them.

Tim Raines is on the ballot for the first time this year and he belongs in the Hall of Fame. Consider:

Player A: .294/.385/.425 170 HR 713 XBH 808 SB (146 CS) 123.9 WARP .307 EqA
Player B: .279/.401/.419 297 HR 873 XBH 1406 SB (335 CS) 187.7 WARP .315 EqA

Player A is Raines and Player B is Rickey Henderson, a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer and probably the best leadoff hitter in baseball history. Raines isn’t all that far behind him and the wide disparity in certain categories (XBH, WARP) is mostly due to the fact that Rickey Henderson refused to retire for a long time.

Raines suffers because he played in the shadow of Henderson and because he was linked to the cocaine scandal in the early 1980s, admitting that he carried a vial of the white stuff onto the field during games and slid headfirst so he wouldn’t break it. As Rob Neyer points out, Paul Molitor — also a Hall of Famer who lines up well numbers-wise with Raines and was elected on the first ballot — admitted to being addicted to cocaine with virtually no stigma attached. And as HoF guru and BP contributor Jay Jaffe points out, Raines dwarfs Rice, who is more likely to make it this season, in terms of production to the tune of two marginal wins a season. He rates as the seventh best left fielder of all-time according to his JAWS system.

Raines isn’t the only player who belongs. Bert Blyleven’s exclusion from Cooperstown is one of the blackest marks on the voters’ record in recent years. The greatest ginger kid to ever play baseball had 287 wins and ranks fifth on the all-time strikeout list with 3,701 in his career. (Every other pitcher in the top 10 is in the Hall or will be on the first ballot on which he’s listed).

Blyleven had the gall to retire before he was washed up and play on some absolutely brutal teams, so he finished 13 wins short of the magical 300-win barrier. The biggest knock I’ve heard against him is that he lost too many games, 250, as if he’s somehow to blame for the fact that he didn’t get the run support a pitcher who spent most of his career with a consistent winner would. It’s absurd to hold that against him since he ranks so highly on the K list, is just short of 300 wins and he had a career ERA of 3.31 and an ERA+ of 118.

I break down most of the Hall contenders in a column for AOL Sports that will run today, if you want to read more on the debate.