Defensive Indifference

Here’s a bold prediction for you. Tampa Bay is going to make the playoffs by the end of the decade. The Rays — sans Devil — finalized a trade Wednesday night that sent ex-No. 1 prospect Delmon Young to Minnesota and brought back pitcher Matt Garza as part of a six-player deal.

They also got a good relief prospect, Eduardo Morlan and swapped shortstop Brendan Harris for the Twins’ incumbent Jason Bartlett. To be clear, I liked the deal for both sides. The Twins desperately needed a potential middle-of-the-order bat and Young cold even replace Torii Hunter in center in a pinch.

The Rays are rapidly becoming a team to be reckoned with. The offensive pieces are already there. B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena seem to finally be hitting their ceilings. Carl Crawford is still an elite talent. Evan Longoria is coming and that should allow Akinori Iwamura to slide over to second, a more appropriate position for his bat. My point: the offense is already very good and will get better with the arrival of Longoria, who should break camp as the starting third baseman and is capable of a 30-homer season right away. They averaged 5.2 runs per game after the All-Star break in 2007.

Now you might point out that they lost one of their “best” bats in Young, but what did they really lose?

Really not all that much. Young did have 93 RBI, but he managed a Neifi Perez-esque .316 OBP and put up a VORP of 5.7 in a whopping 681 plate appearances. Of course, Young’s ceiling is much, much higher than that, but the Rays had a logjam in the outfield and what they got in return filled a major hole. (Plus they also don’t have to worry about a Louisville Slugger impaling an umpire at Tropicana Field … except when the Twins are in town or Elijah Dukes is anywhere in the state).

Matt Garza is one of the better young pitchers around. He’s not Cole Hamels or Clay Buchholz or Joba Chamberlain, but he’s in the next group a decent No. 2 or No. 3 starter. Garza is ready now too. He pitched regularly from July on in 2007, posting an ERA of 3.69. He’ll slot wonderfully into the rotation behind Scott Kazmir, who looks like a true ace now, and James Shields, who’s an excellent No. 2. Not far behind is 2007 No. 1 pick David Price, a lefty so polished that he could be in the majors by the end of the season.

That’s a formidable rotation. One that could be better than New York’s next season and right there with Boston’s through the end of the decade. If they can shore up a bullpen that was historically bad last season, and simply by doing nothing it should get better, this team can contend in 2009. In fact, they could be a favorite as the cores of the Red Sox and the Yankees continue to get older.

I’d pick them for third place in the AL East if the season started today.